A FORECASTING METHODS FOR CO2 EMISSION FROM USING OIL: BOX - JENKINS METHOD AND WINTER’S METHOD

Authors

  • ยุพิน กาญจนะศักดิ์ดา คณะวิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี มหาวิทยาลัยหอการค้าไทย
  • บุญหญิง สมร่าง คณะวิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี มหาวิทยาลัยหอการค้าไทย
  • สุณี ทวีสกุลวัชระ คณะวิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี มหาวิทยาลัยหอการค้าไทย
  • ลักขณา เศาธยะนันท์ คณะวิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี มหาวิทยาลัยหอการค้าไทย

Keywords:

Forecasting, Box-Jenkins method, Winter’s method

Abstract

This research aims to determine an optimum model and compares two methods for predicting the quantity of carbon dioxide from oil use including the Box-Jenkin method and the Winters method. The suitable model of Box-Jenkin method is ARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12, and in the case of the Winters method, the forecasting model for the time t+1 from time t is t (I) = (t+I t)t+I-m , I = 1,2,…,m and t (I) = (t+I t)t+I-km , l = (k-1)m+1, (k-1)m+2, …,km; k = 1, 2, 3,… with the estimated parameters t = 0.509 (Yt / t-m) + 0.491(t-1 + t-1), t = 0.001 (t -t-1) + 0.999 t-1, t = 0.129 (Yt / t) + 0.871 t-m We evaluate the correctness of the prediction using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Results indicate that MAPE and RMSE for the 3-month prediction are lower than those of the 5-moth prediction. The comparison of the two methods found that the Winters method produces a lower approximation error than the Box-Jenkin method in the 3-month prediction. In contrast, the Box-Jenkin method produces a lower approximation error than the Winters method in the case of 5-month prediction.

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References

[1] Prathum, Chitsanupong. (2015, July-December). Feasibility Study of Carbon Dioxide Recycling using a Biological Wastewater Treatment System for Industrial Sources. Journal of Environmental Management, 11(2), 106-133.
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Published

2021-01-13

How to Cite

กาญจนะศักดิ์ดา ย. ., สมร่าง บ. ., ทวีสกุลวัชระ ส. ., & เศาธยะนันท์ ล. . (2021). A FORECASTING METHODS FOR CO2 EMISSION FROM USING OIL: BOX - JENKINS METHOD AND WINTER’S METHOD. Srinakharinwirot University Journal of Sciences and Technology, 12(24, July-December), 76–86. Retrieved from https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/swujournal/article/view/243100