การพยากรณ์ปริมาณก๊าซคาร์บอนไดออกไซด์จากการใช้น้ำมันสำเร็จรูป โดยวิธีบอกซ์ – เจนกินส์ และวิธีการของวินเตอร์ A FORECASTING METHODS FOR CO2 EMISSION FROM USING OIL: BOX - JENKINS METHOD AND WINTER’S METHOD

Abstract

           This research aims to determine an optimum model and compares two methods for predictingthe quantity of carbon dioxide from oil use including the Box-Jenkin method and the Winters method. The suitable model of Box-Jenkin method is ARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)₁₂, and in the case of the Winters method, the forecasting model for the time t+1 from time t is , l = 1,2,3,… and , l = (k-1)m+1, (k-1)m+2, …,km; k = 1, 2, 3,… with the estimated parameters ,   We evaluate the correctness of the prediction using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Results indicate that MAPE and RMSE for the 3-month prediction are lower than those of the 5-moth prediction. The comparison of the two methods found that the Winters method produces a lower approximation error than the Box-Jenkin method in the 3-month prediction. In contrast, the Box-Jenkin method produces a lower approximation error than the Winters method in the case of 5-month prediction.