An analysis of the impact of el niño and la niña on solar energy production in Samut Prakan Province, Thailand

Authors

  • Jakrin Malairojsiri Department of Engineering, Royal Thai Naval Academy.
  • Napadach Attachareanwong Royal Thai Naval Academy.

Keywords:

Solar Production, El Niño, La Niña, Levellised Cost of Electricity, Payback Period

Abstract

This research investigates the impact of El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena on solar energy generation and system performance. A solar photovoltaic (PV) system in Samut Prakan province was selected as a case study to analyse this hypothesis. By comparing average energy production during El Niño and La Niña events, it was found that the mean power output during El Niño was 16% higher than the mean power output during La Niña. Although the solar profiles at Samut Prakan indicated similar energy production levels during both phenomena in the summer, greater variability was observed during winter and rainy seasons. Regarding financial investment, a Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of 5 Baht/kWh was calculated, resulting in a Payback Period (PBP) of 11 years for a 25-year project lifespan. This suggests a favourable economic return on investment.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Papapapong. (2024). Climate change El Nino and La Nina effects Central and South America, Southeast Asia. Vecteezy. https://www.vecteezy.com/vector-art/25740479-climate-change-el-nino-and-la-nina-effects-central-and-south-america-southeast-asia

Mohammadi, K., and Goudarzi, N. (2018). Study of inter-correlations of solar radiation, wind speed and precipitation under the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in California. Renewable Energy, 120, 190-200.

Physical Sciences Laboratory. (2024). Multivariate ENSO index version 2 (MEI. v2). PSL NOAA. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/#datacomp

Profilesolar. (2024). Solar photovoltaic systems for Thailand. ProfileSOLAR. https://profilesolar.com/locations/Thailand/Mueang-Samut-Prakan/

Fernandes, M. R., and Schaefer, L. A. (2021). Levelized cost of energy of hybrid concentrating photovoltaic-thermal systems based on nanofluid spectral filtering. Solar Energy, 227, 126-136.

Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices. (2024). Thailand inflation rate. Trading Economics. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/inflation-cpi

Energy Regulatory Commission. (2024). Procurement of electricity from renewable energy under the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) scheme from 2022 to 2030 for the no-fuel-cost group. https://www.erc.or.th/th/power-purchasing3/2697 (in Thai)

Lai, C. S., Locatelli, G., Pimm, A., Tao, Y., Li, X., and Lai, L. L. (2019). A financial model for lithium-ion storage in a photovoltaic and biogas energy system. Applied Energy, 251, 113-179.

Chiang Mai University. (2024). Chapter 3: Research methodology. https://archive.lib.cmu.ac.th/full/T/2541/econ0841ps_ch3.pdf (in Thai)

Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand. (2023). Tariff calculation. MEA. https://www.mea.or.th/our-services/tariff-calculation/other/D5xEaEwgU (in Thai)

Kilgore, G. (2024). Solar panel efficiency over time: When to replace (& why degradation matters). 8Billiontrees. https://8billiontrees.com/solar-panels/solar-panel-efficiency-over-time/

Downloads

Published

2025-06-01

How to Cite

Malairojsiri, J., & Attachareanwong, N. (2025). An analysis of the impact of el niño and la niña on solar energy production in Samut Prakan Province, Thailand. Srinakharinwirot University Journal of Sciences and Technology, 17(1, January-June), 1–14, Article 254933. retrieved from https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/swujournal/article/view/254933