การพยากรณ์จำนวนนักท่องเที่ยวอุทยานแห่งชาติภูหินร่องกล้า

Abstract

This objective of this study is to study and forecast the number of tourists visiting Phu Hin Rong Kla National Park, Phitsanulok province. The data used in this study is the monthly data during January 2012 to April 2019, collected from department of national parks, wildlife and plant conservation. The data during January 2012 to December 2018 were used for the modeling forecast by three types of statistical models namely: Holt-Winters multiplicative method, Box-Jenkins method, and combined forecasting method. The data during January to April 2019 were used to implement the accuracy of the forecasting model by mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).  The results show that the Holt-Winters multiplicative method is accuracy for forecasting the number of tourists visiting to Phu Hin Rong Kla National Park.