The impacts of forest fires in 1998-2020 on the communities and the environment in Northern Thailand by employing descriptive statistics and analysis of extreme values

ผลกระทบจากไฟป่า พ.ศ. 2541-2563 ต่อชุมชนและสิ่งแวดล้อมทางภาคเหนือของประเทศไทย โดยใช้สถิติพรรณนาและการวิเคราะห์ค่าสุดขีด

Abstract

This research aims to point out the impacts of forest fires on the community and the environment in Northern Thailand between 1998 and 2020 and to make a forecast on forest fire areas burnt greatly in the next five years, 10 years, 20 years, and 30 years by employing the analysis of extreme values and comparing the linear moment's method and the Maximum Likelihood Method under Generalized Extreme Value Distribution to the parameter estimation.  When “” is a location Parameter, “” is a scale parameter and “” is a shape parameter, the results of the data of forest fire areas burnt revealed that the average damage was 62,628 rai per year and the results of the analysis of extreme values found that an appropriate parameter estimate for the data under Generalized Extreme Value Distribution was the estimate obtained from maximum likelihood estimation. Therefore, the estimate of location parameter “” was 41367.07, the estimate of scale parameter “” was 28347.46, and the estimate of shape parameter “” was 0.1924911. When the data of forest fire areas burnt hugely were employed to forecast, the results of which showed that they showed that the forest fire areas burnt greatly in the next 5 years, 10 years, 20 years and 30 years were up to 906,60.77 rai, 121,207.11 rai, 154,959.47 rai, and 176,603.81 rai respectively or the damage might occur once a year on average or any year. The results of this parameter estimation help us to visualize future forest fire trends. This will enable us to plan and prevent wildlife, economy, and health from forest fires.  To do this, it will help much better and safer for many people in communities who are now residents in the northern region and the environment