PROJECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON FUTURE RAINFALL INTENSITY BY USING WRF MODEL AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR FARMER IN NAKORN NAYOK PROVINCE

Abstract

The objectives of the study were: 1) Evaluate the trends of climate change based on physical factors in the future in Nakhon Nayok province 2) To study the problems and obstacles to farmers' adaptation to cope with the impacts of climate change affecting the physical environment in the future in Nakhon Nayok province area and 3) To suggest guidelines for solving farmers' problems and obstacles to cope with the impacts of climate change in the future in Nakhon Nayok Province. In this study, the data was calculated from HadGEM2-ES models in the past 35 years (1971-2005) to determine the potential bias of the model. The bias obtained was then corrected to the predicted data from the HadGEM2-ES model in the future (2020-2040) under the RCP 4.5 atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration scenario. The physical factors were taken to study the effects of climate change in Nakhon Nayok province including rainfall and surface air temperature. The effect that can be analyzed will lead to questionnaires to in-depth interview relevant sample group in the area that are expected to be affected in the dimensions of climate change preparedness. The data from the HadGEM2-ES model was able to simulate precipitation more accurately 12% than the surface air temperature data. In the period of 2020 to 2040, the rainfall in Nakhon Nayok province area is likely to have a constant average rainfall in the future. But the rainfall pattern would change from the past was not very strong and fall on several days regularly throughout the year. Whereas it will rain heavily, but the number of days it would be less. The results showed that the average SPI index in Nakhon Nayok province was between -2.00 and 2.00, it was found that from 2020 to 2040, there was 35 months of more humid or rainy conditions than usual and 27 months of drought conditions. The analysis of data from interviews using a computer program for qualitative data management by ATLAS.ti version 8.0 program to analyse the relationship of concepts and focused coding. The research findings showed problems and obstacles for climate change adaptation among farmers in Nakhon Nayok province appearing in five concepts: 1. Lack of resources for adaptation / response; 2. Difficulty of community development projects; 4. Lack of knowledge / information and 5. Lack of market for community processed agricultural products.