A Functions for Seasonality and Trend in Optimal Time Series Bayesian Models for the Efficient Analysis of Rice Price and Yield in Thailand

Authors

  • Pornpit Sirima Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, , Rajamangala University of Technology Phra Nakhon, Thailand
  • Pitsanu Tongkhow Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, , Rajamangala University of Technology Phra Nakhon, Thailand
  • Sunee Sammatat Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Rajamangala University of Technology Phra Nakhon , Thailand
  • Phannika Mee-on Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Rajamangala University of Technology Phra Nakhon , Thailand
  • Suttipong Jumroonrut Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, , Rajamangala University of Technology Phra Nakhon, Thailand

Keywords:

Seasonal function, Time series, Autoregression, Bayesian model, Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

This research aims to apply the principle of stochastic process for modeling. The parameters are estimated using Bayesian methods. The monthly average real price of 15% paddy rice and yield of paddy rice in Thailand were studied. The price and the yield of paddy rice which are time series data consisting of four components, autocorrelation, an exponential cumulative distribution function for trend, outliers, and two different types of seasons: the dummy seasons and Fourier function seasons. Writing algorithms, programming in OpenBUGS and evaluating the performance of models from simulation programming in R were conducted. After that, Bayesian methods with dummy seasons and Fourier function seasons were compared using RMSE, MSE and MAE as the criteria. The results showed that the Bayesian model with an exponential cumulative distribution function for trend and dummy seasons provided the lowest RMSE, MSE and MAE for both model fitting and model validating.

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Published

2022-06-16

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Section

Research Articles