การพยากรณ์ก๊าซที่เกิดจากการผลิตก๊าซชีวภาพด้วยวิธีบ็อกซ์-เจนกินส์

Abstract

This research studies the gas forecasting for biogas production in Suphanburi province by Box-Jenkins method. Biogas is an alternative energy consisting of CH₄ gas, CO₂ gas and H₂S gas respectively. Monthly biogas data forecasts for 8 years from 2010 to 2017. The forecasting data is divided into two sets, which are the first set of data from January 2010 to December 2016, consisting 0f 84 data. Used to create an air quality forecasting model for each type of gas. And the second set of data in the year 2018, consisting of 12 data, to be predicted and compared with the actual value. The results showed that air quality forecasting model for CO₂ gas suitable for creating the model. Most predicted with the least absolute percentage (MAPE) than the other gas types. And when the model is used to forecast the air quality. It is found the values are close to the actual of biogas. Therefore, the Box-Jenkins method is appropriate to analyze time series data.